Gartner: Windows Phone to overtake BlackBerry in 2013, iOS in 2015
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Thread: Gartner: Windows Phone to overtake BlackBerry in 2013, iOS in 2015

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    Gartner: Windows Phone to overtake BlackBerry in 2013, iOS in 2015



    Gartner is now predicting that Windows Phone will be the second smartphone OS in terms of marketshare behind Android OS as of 2015, but overtaking BlackBerry in 2013, and then iOS in 2015. This report basically mirrors last week’s IDC prediction. Why such a prediction?

    This bold claim is essential based on the same assumption that because Nokia is dropping Symbian in favor of Windows Phone 7 (and future versions of Windows Phone) then Microsoft’s mobile OS will get a gigantic boost in consumer adoption in the coming years.

    Once again, all these predictions assume that nothing major will happen between now and then. But what about Gartner/IDC prior predictions? Do they add credibility, or just hot air? In 2007 iPhone released - Gartner/IDC were wrong about it's marketshare in 2011. In 2008 Android released - Gartner/IDC were wrong about it's marketshare in 2011. In 2010 Windows 7 Phone released - Now Gartner/IDC are suddenly geniuses at predicting marketshare in 2013 and 2015? I think not. In fact, all reports show that BlackBerry continues to shine and surpass expectations, including predictions that the PlayBook will the the second best selling tablet this year. See full Press Release below:

    Gartner Says Android to Command Nearly Half of Worldwide Smartphone Operating System Market by Year-End 2012

    Egham, UK, April 7, 2011—Worldwide smartphone sales will reach 468 million units in 2011, a 57.7 percent increase from 2010, according to Gartner Inc. By the end of 2011, Android will move to become the most popular operating system (OS) worldwide and will build on its strength to account for 49 percent of the smartphone market by 2012 (see Table 1). Sales of open OS* devices will account for 26 percent of all mobile handset device sales in 2011, and are expected to surpass the 1 billion mark by 2015, when they will account for 47 percent of the total mobile device market.
    “By 2015, 67 percent of all open OS devices will have an average selling price of $300 or below, proving that smartphones have been finally truly democratized,” said Roberta Cozza, principal analyst at Gartner.
    “As vendors delivering Android-based devices continue to fight for market share, price will decrease to further benefit consumers”, Ms. Cozza said. “Android's position at the high end of the market will remain strong, but its greatest volume opportunity in the longer term will be in the mid- to low-cost smartphones, above all in emerging markets.”

    Source: Gartner (April 2011)
    Gartner predicts that Apple’s iOS will remain the second biggest platform worldwide through 2014 despite its share deceasing slightly after 2011. This reflects Gartner’s underlying assumption that Apple will be interested in maintaining margins rather than pursuing market share by changing its pricing strategy. This will continue to limit adoption in emerging regions. iOS share will peak in 2011, with volume growth well above the market average. This is driven by increased channel reach in key mature markets like the U.S. and Western Europe.
    Research In Motion’s share over the forecast period will decline, reflecting the stronger competitive environment in the consumer market, as well as increased competition in the business sector. Gartner has factored in RIM’s migration from BlackBerry OS to QNX which is expected in 2012. Analysts said this transition makes sense because RIM can create a consistent experience going from smartphones to tablets with a single developer community and — given that QNX as a platform brings more advanced features than the classic BlackBerry OS — it can enable more competitive smartphone products.
    Gartner predicts that Nokia will push Windows Phone well into the mid-tier of its portfolio by the end of 2012, driving the platform to be the third largest in the worldwide ranking by 2013. Gartner has revised its forecast of Windows Phone’s market share upward, solely by virtue of Microsoft’s alliance with Nokia. Although this is an honorable performance it is considerably less than what Symbian had achieve in the past underlying the upward battle that Nokia has to face.
    Gartner analysts said new device types will widen ecosystems. “The growth in sales of media tablets expected in 2011 and future years will widen the ecosystems that open OS communications devices have created. This will, by and large, function more as a driver than an inhibitor for sales of open OS devices,” said Carolina Milanesi, research vice president at Gartner.
    “Consumers who already own an open OS communications device will be drawn to media tablets and more often than not, to media tablets that share the same OS as their smartphone,” Ms. Milanesi said. “This allows consumers to be able to share the same experience across devices as well as apps, settings or game scores. At the same time, tablet users who don’t own a smartphone could be prompted to adopt one to be able to share the experience they have on their tablets.”
    Note *: An open OS makes a software developer kit (SDK) available to developers, who can use native application programming interfaces (APIs) to write applications. The OS can be supported by a sole vendor or multiple vendors. It can be, but does not have to be, open source. Examples are BlackBerry OS, iOS, Symbian, Android, Windows Phone, Linux, Limo Foundation, WebOS and bada.



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  2. #2
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    I commented on this item on BGR also.
    How dumb are those guys?
    Maybe it's me, but how do 2 companies who ar midrange (Nokia fell hard in a few years) combine to be the number 1 all of a sudden?
    WM never realy grew since Androis and iOs came, and even RIM is more populaire. What will they do? Upgrade all Symbian phones to WM?
    In a servey here almost 90% of the people think WM and Nokia won't work and won't use it.
    But then again, isn't this the same company that said OS2 would dominate?
    Joe Jerde likes this.

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    Just read that HTC is now worth more then Nokia.
    And they only make smartphones. Seeing HTC loves Android, and HTC is seming to sell more, I don't see this happening. Maybe if HTC is gonna use WM more then Android but that will happen when pigs fly I guess...

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