This bold claim is essential based on the same assumption that because Nokia is dropping Symbian in favor of Windows Phone 7 (and future versions of Windows Phone) then Microsoft’s mobile OS will get a gigantic boost in consumer adoption in the coming years.
Once again, all these predictions assume that nothing major will happen between now and then. But what about Gartner/IDC prior predictions? Do they add credibility, or just hot air? In 2007 iPhone released - Gartner/IDC were wrong about it's marketshare in 2011. In 2008 Android released - Gartner/IDC were wrong about it's marketshare in 2011. In 2010 Windows 7 Phone released - Now Gartner/IDC are suddenly geniuses at predicting marketshare in 2013 and 2015? I think not. In fact, all reports show that BlackBerry continues to shine and surpass expectations, including predictions that the PlayBook will the the second best selling tablet this year.