A couple of weeks ago we told you
about how analyst Michael Walkley of Canaccord Genuity
had cut his initial estimation of BlackBerry Z10 sales from 1.75 million to 300,000 units. This flew in the face of reports of increased interest in the BlackBerry Z10 which was reported to be up 43% in a six month period before the initial release of the phone.
It's now turned into something like watching a tennis match with the back
going on. Now the same analyst, Michael Walkley, has backtracked on his forecast of doom and gloom admitting he was wrong about his estimate.
"Given our store surveys indicated modest Z10 sales in the U.K. and Canada with limited initial inventory levels, we admittedly reduced our February quarter sell-in estimates too low for the first month of the Z10 launch," Mr. Walkley said in a research note today.
With the Z10 launching in additional markets the last weeks of February, we have increased our February quarter BB10 smartphone sell-in estimate from 300K to 800K units,” he said.
Having said that, Walkley hasn't really changed his tune for BlackBerry Z10 sales in the US or BlackBerry ($BBRY) stock.
“Our follow-up surveys have indicated steady but modest sales levels for the Z10. With new BB10 smartphones launching in the U.S. only in mid-March or later at subsidized prices no better than competing high-end Apple/Samsung smartphones, combined with our expectations for the Galaxy S IV to launch at a similar time frame in the U.S. market, we anticipate BlackBerry will struggle to reclaim high-end smartphone market share,” he said.
Mr. Walkley also changed his estimate but not his outlook on BlackBerry stock. He moved his estimation on share loss up from -$1.18 to -$1.06 for the fiscal 2013. Walkley also kept his stock rating on "sell".
So what do you think? Is the BlackBerry Z10 on track for mediocrity or is it going to be the panacea for BlackBerry when sales start coming in for the US?