Analysts' jobs can be very tough. Trying to predict what's coming and what will happen can't be easy. Unfortunately, some just really don't sound like they have a clue at times. Take the latest number from the Detwiler Fenton firm which alleges to their "understanding" BlackBerry 10 won't be around here any time soon. Here's what they think:
- Detwiler “understands” that the BlackBerry 10 QWERTY device (N-Series) won’t show up until June.
- AT&T and T-Mobile won't be launching BB10 devices until March.
- Verizon and Sprint are looking at a May target date.
Now, that's pretty ugly. Actually, it's extremely ugly especially because RIM's launch event for BB10 is January 30th. Developers are also all using the January 21st date to hurry up and get their apps submitted to meet the 10K challenge. Waiting over 3 months after the launch event to get an L-Series, not even an N, on Verizon or Sprint would be disastrous.
Aside from the obvious, missing the Q1 2013 goal in 2 out of 4 U.S. carriers, it would show that RIM really didn't have the carrier support and backing that we believe they do. All in all, it would be awful. Fortunately though, analysts tend to be wrong and completely off as frequently as the sun rises. Probably even more.
My favorite quote about analysts actually comes from Forbes:
"If these people (analysts) had been born optimistic, they would have become entrepreneurs or salespeople. Because they were born conservative or pessimistic, they chose to become stock analysts (although the accounting profession is always there as a back-up)."
Thorsten Heins has promised we'd see devices shortly after launch. Over a month is not shortly in most people's opinions, and I tend to think he knows something analysts may not.
We only have 55 days to go till BlackBerry 10 launches officially. I'm certain while we wait we will hear a lot more opinions and speculation on dates for different carriers. Truthfully, only time will tell.