InMobi published a misleading study today
in which they cite "52% of all BlackBerry users will switch to an iPhone 5." The study also states 51% of all iPhone users will upgrade to an iPhone 5 and 27% of Android users will switch over to Apple's iOS smartphone. They come to this conclusion after citing that 41% of all smartphone users will switch the iPhone 5 once it hits the market. This is a bold statement to make and as such, I wanted to take a closer look into this incomplete study.
This study lacks in many areas. It does not reveal the amount of total people interviewed. It does not mention the amount of users per OS interviewed. This study doesn't even tell us if the amount of interviewees from each OS is the same. Why would a study do this? Simple answer: So its claims can't be checked mathematically.
According to the study, 41% is achieved by taking 3 figures from each OS:
Unfortunately when you add all of these together, you don't get 41%
Now, of course, if one OS' users are interviewed more than the other it would skew the results, but again this is why the study is incomplete: It doesn't give us any information
that is usable to prove it correct or wrong. How do we know that they didn't just interview 25 BlackBerry users and that 13 of them were unsatisfied Curve 85xx owners, who we know aren't the happiest of all BlackBerry users, and called that sufficient?
Let's play devil's advocate though and say that the figures are accurate and it does end up being 52% of all BlackBerry users that have said this. One small problem; let's see if you spot it when you compare these two quotes from the report:
- "The recent InMobi consumer smartphone survey uncovers that 41% of current mobile users in the U.S., Mexico, and Canada plan to buy an iPhone 5."
- "The study uncovered that over half of BlackBerry users (52%) are planning to switch to the new Apple iPhone 5"
This study was only conducted in North America and since recently BlackBerry has earned way more popularity in other countries and regions; like Latin America, Europe, Asia; it is very misleading to say 52% of BlackBerry users will switch to the iPhone. If this study would have been conducted in South America, for example, where BlackBerry devices are extremely popular, it would've more than likely been a completely different outcome and figures.
Unfortunately, headlines like this sway the public and do have a strong impact on what they end up deciding. Most people don't investigate further into claims made by analysts and surveys. Hopefully though Research In Motion will be able to jump out in front of the pack sooner rather later and wont let the launch of the iPhone 4 part 2 kill the momentum gained with the launch of BB7.